Earth-Save

A 2003 study predicted that glaciers will disappear from Glacier National Park by 2030.  But because temperatures are warming even faster than just a few years ago, glaciers are now expected to disappear by 2020.

Glaciers are created when snow doesn’t completely melt in summer and over time is compacted into ice.  To be classified as a glacier, an ice field must be at least 25 acres, moving, and sculpting the landscape.

In 1900, there were about 150 glaciers in what is now Glacier National Park.  Today only 25 glaciers remain.

Although the quantity and size of glaciers have been decreasing over the past century, glaciers are now shrinking four times as fast as they were in the 1960s.  The reason is warmer climate.  Although Glacier National Park is colder than many other parts of the world, temperatures in the park have increased three times as fast as average global temperatures.

There may be some debate as to whether the warming climate is a natural cycle or the result of man-made pollutants.  But there is no debate that temperatures in Glacier National Park are getting warmer, the glaciers are getting smaller, and this is all happening even faster than previously predicted.

Story at USA News
Glacier National Park Photo Tour
More National Park News

I do believe we are getting warmer.  I’ve been keeping an almanac since 2000, and many natural events — such as the arrival of hummingbirds, bluebirds, deerflies, mayflowers, forsythia, etc. — are occurring at least a week earlier in the spring now than just a decade before.  Of course, like global temperature readings over the past century, my information is not scientifically precise.  But I don’t need lab measurements to confirm what I’m witnessing with my own eyes.  And the data from the extremes of our Earth such as towns in Alaska that are collapsing in melting permafrost is irrefutable.  The world is indeed heating up.

But it’s debatable whether this is just a normal cyclic event or an irreversible trend.  In spite of all the scientific evidence, there’s no irrefutable proof at this point, and many skeptics remain.  And it’s also debatable how much impact humans have.  It’s ridiculous to think that humans have no effect on our environment.  But it’s unclear whether our pollution is the primary cause of the recent warming or just one of many contributing factors.  Again, there is currently no way to know for sure with our limited data, scientific knowledge and computational power.

That said, we are humans who have been blessed with incredible pattern recognition capabilities and intuition.  Like the frog sitting in the slowly boiling pot of water, we notice it’s getting warmer and the bubbles are starting to form.  We have no conclusive proof that it’s warmer or whether it will continue, but it sure seems like it is.  So do we just sit and do nothing and wait until we boil to death?  Or do we get smart about our future and jump out of the pot?  (Note that the “boiling frog” theory itself appears to be false — who can you believe these days about anything?)

Hopefully as smart humans we will recognize that our endless pollution and reliance on fossil fuels is wrong on so many levels — environment, economy, security, geopolitics, health.  It’s essential that we start cleaning up our act and looking for a better way to fuel our future.  The one major downside to the global warming debate is it has enough ambiguity and uncertainty that skeptics can use it as an excuse inject FUD, do nothing and keep business as usual.  And that’s the real climate catastrophe.

As spring begins, more than 90 percent of Arctic sea ice is only 1 or 2 years old.  That makes the ice thinner and more vulnerable than anytime in the past three decades, according to researchers with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.  “We’re not set up well for summertime,” said Ice Data Center scientist Walt Meier.  “We’re in a very precarious situation.”

Young Arctic sea ice often melts in summer.  If it survives for two years, it becomes a more permanent type of thick sea ice.  The amount of thick sea ice hit a record wintertime low of just 378,000 square miles this year, down 43 percent from last year.  That means the Arctic lost a section of sea ice larger than the state of Texas.

Thick sea ice is critically important because it reflects sunlight away from Earth.  The more the ice melts, the more heat is absorbed by the ocean, which heats up the planet even faster, causing a self-reinforcing loop of warming.

Story at FoxNews

A top Chinese official said that China is not responsible for its emissions: the countries that import its products are.  China’s top climate negotiator Li Gao said that any fair international agreement to curb greenhouse gases should not require China to reduce the emissions it released to manufacture exported goods.

China has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.  But Gao said that 15-25% of its emissions are generated by manufacturing goods for export.  “As one of the developing countries, we are at the low end of the production line for the global economy.  We produce products, and these products are consumed by other countries. … This share of emissions should be taken by the consumers, but not the producers," Gao said.

China’s stance could be one of many stumbling blocks facing the countries that hope to broker a new international emissions treaty in Copenhagen in December.  Neither China nor the U.S. ratified the last agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Story at FoxNews

According to research from British climate scientists, there is a 50-50 chance the Earth’s temperature will rise to disaster levels over the next century.  Such exclamations of doom make catchy headlines, but what does it mean in practical terms?

The scientists believe that a 2-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures would cause massive heat waves and droughts, many worse than the 2003 European heat wave that killed thousands of people.

But even with heavy cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of 3 percent a year from 2015 on, there is only a 50% chance of preventing the temperature from rising that much.  And every decade delay in reducing emissions will cause temperatures to go up by another half a degree, researchers say.

Story at London Times

It’s an often-repeated statistic used by global warming proponents: the glaciers in Montana’s Glacier National Park will disappear by the year 2030.  But Daniel Fagre, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ecologist who works at Glacier, says the park’s glaciers will disappear ten years ahead of schedule, affecting the region’s plants and animals.

The 2030 date was based on a 2003 USGS study that used 1992 temperature predictions.  “Temperature rise in our area was twice as great as what we put into the [1992] model,” Fagre said.  The 2020 estimate is based on aerial surveys and photography Fagre and his team have been conducting at Glacier since the early 1980s.

Glaciers are disappearing all over the globe.  Most glaciers have disappeared entirely from the Andes, and the Himalayas have lost a third of its snow.

Glacier melt has important ecological implications.  “A lot of our sensitive and rare plants are associated with the edges of glaciers,” Fagre said.  Retreating glaciers initially expose more growing area for plants.  But as glaciers retreat, the streams they feed can become unreliable or dry up completely, affecting plants and animals that depended on the nearly-constant supply of moisture.

Story at National Geographic

Glacier National Park Photo Tour

According to a new study published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, part of Alaska’s coastline is falling into the sea at twice its past rate and reshaping the Arctic shoreline.  The trend could threaten the area’s caribou, other wildlife, and local landmarks.  Some stretches of the state’s northern shore along the Beaufort Sea receded by more than 80 feet in summer 2007 alone, when Arctic sea ice was at a record low.

In the past, erosion was mostly caused by storms that regularly pummel Alaska, but there were no major storms in 2007.  That indicates there has been “a shift in the forces driving erosion,” said study author Benjamin Jones, a research geographer at the U.S. Geological Survey. 

The most significant force causing erosion is global warming.  As the air and sea temperatures increase, the ice in the region’s permafrost melts, creating steams of meltwater that carry sediment into the sea.  From 2002 to 2007, melting ice caused the coast to disappear at a rate of about 45 feet a year, a 50% increase since 1979 and a 225% increase since 1955.

Story at National Geographic

U.S. scientist says the Earth’s atmospheric greenhouse gases are increasing more rapidly than originally predicted.  Chris Field, a member of the Nobel Prize-winning Panel on Climate Change, says the planet’s climate system will cross a critical threshold by the end of the century.  Studies indicate runaway greenhouse warming could create a vicious cycle in which carbon dioxide is released from thawing tundra, which warms the planet more and releases more carbon dioxide.

“The data now show that greenhouse gas emissions are accelerating much faster than we thought,” said Field.  “One thing that seems to be certain, however, is that as a society we are facing a climate crisis that is larger and harder to deal with than any of us thought.  The sooner we take decisive action, the better our chances are of leaving a sustainable world to future generations.”

Story at UPI

The frozen interior of Antarctica had long been the counter-example to global warming, with some areas getting even colder as the rest of the world warmed rapidly.

But climate researchers have now proven this to be false.  A study by Penn State University shows that the entire continent has actually been warming for the past 50 years.  "Antarctica is warming, and it’s warming at the same rate as the rest of the planet," said study co-author Michael Mann.

Read the rest of this entry »

A large majority of scientists believe that human-induced global warming is real.  The University of Illinois surveyed 3,146 scientists.  The results say 90% of scientists believe that mean global temperatures have risen since pre-1800s levels, and 82% believe that human activity is a significant factor in raising global temps.

However there is a divide between climatologists and other scientists as to whether humans are to blame for global warming.  Nearly 97% of climatologists who perform climate research believe that humans play a role.  But only 64% of meteorologists and 47% of petroleum geologists believe in human involvement.

Read the rest of this entry »